AFTERNOON POST:  MAY 18,  2008

Posted at 2:19 p.m. ET

THE POLLS

A stunning new poll out of Oregon puts Barack Obama only five points up on Hillary Clinton in this Tuesday's primary.  However, the ARG poll is of unknown accuracy, and there are no other very late polls that can be used for comparison purposes.  A Portland Tribune poll published six days ago had Obama ahead by 20, and two others released about the same time had Obama up 14 and 11 respectively.  I'd be careful about this new poll, in light of the others.

In Kentucky, also voting Tuesday, a late American Research Group poll has Clinton up 36 points over Obama, a bit higher for Clinton than previous polls, but in the same ball park.  Like West Virginia, this should be easy for Clinton. 

Nationals:  The national trackers continue the same trend - a tight race with neither Obama nor Clinton having any particular advantage.  Rasmussen has Obama up one over McCain, whereas Gallup has McCain up one over Obama. 

Rasmussen has Clinton and Obama in a tie, but Gallup has Clinton up two.

I don't detect, at least thus far, any change resulting from Obama's dustup with Bush over Bush's remarks in Israel. 

May 18, 2008.

SUNDAY:  MAY 18,  2008

Posted at 8:26 a.m. ET

OBAMABOMBS

There seems little combat left between Senators Clinton and Obama.  Barring some unexpected jolt, Obama has the nomination.  Kentucky and Oregon vote Tuesday, but the result is expected to be a wash.  Clinton will win Kentucky handily, and Obama will take Oregon, although, if expectations hold, by a lesser amount.  The opinion leaders in the Democratic Party, and their disciples in the press, don't know much about Kentucky, but they know a great deal about Oregon, and like what they see:  an ocean, a Starbucks, downtown Portland, and no evangelicals.  Besides, who needs a state whose official song is "My Old Kentucky Home," when, dearies, we want to encourage energy-efficient multi-unit housing?

Last week was the unofficial opening of the fall campaign, as Obama used the president's speech in Israel to claim that he was wounded, insulted and suffered permanent psychological damage, and then turned his rhetorical guns on John McCain, insisting McCain was really Bush.  I'm not sure it made much sense.  Maybe Obama has a problem with double vision.  We'll see when the tracking polls pick up the scent in a day or so.

This will be the second unofficial week.  It's starting early.  By fall the biggest factor in the race may be boredom.

May 18, 2008.      Permalink          

BETRAYAL?

There are big doings among the abortion set.  NARAL, the abortion-rights lobby, has endorsed Barack Obama.  There is shock and awe as feminist battalions within NARAL express their outrage. There is fainting. There are thoughts of suicide. The Politico reports:

With the clock running down on a long-fought primary, NARAL Pro-Choice America leaders sent state affiliates reeling this week by endorsing Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois. It was seen as a gratuitous slap in the face to a longtime ally, and it sparked a fear even closer to home: that the move will alienate donors loyal to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.

Many on this week’s conference call were stunned on learning the news, making urgent pleas for the group to remain neutral until after the June 3 Democratic primaries.

“It’s created a firestorm,” said NARAL Pro-Choice New York President Kelli Conlin, who was on the conference call. “Everyone was mystified ... saying, ‘What is the upside for the organization? And, frankly, [there was] a lot of concern about the donor base. ... There was real concern there would be a backlash.”

There was a backlash, and it was swift, starting with NARAL’s own website. At last count, there were more than 3,300 comments in an electronic chat about the endorsement, the overwhelming majority of them negative. “Shame shame shame!” read one, with many correspondents threatening never to support NARAL financially again. “No more donations from me!!!” wrote another.

It's curious.  What exactly is the upside for the organization?  (It's not that I particularly care.)  Obama didn't need the endorsement, and certainly those making the decision understood its impact.  I can only speculate, but what we may have here is an assertion of a religious teaching sacred to the political left - that race trumps gender every time.  NARAL may simply not have been willing to opt out when "the first" was about to be nominated, even though it's not the kind of "first" they'd been dreaming of.  The backlash they received is the cost of identity politics. 

May 18, 2008.      Permalink          

GOTCHA

Gateway Pundit nails former Dem State Department spokesman Jamie Rubin, also known as Mr. Christiane Amanpour, for distorting the truth in his attack on John McCain.  Rubin asserted this week, rather grandly, that he'd interviewed McCain a few years back, and that McCain's position on negotiating with Hamas is identical to that of Barack Obama's.  Not so, says Gateway:

Jamie Rubin wrote a dishonest report in the Washington Post yesterday claiming that Senator John McCain holds the same position as Barack Obama on appeasing terror-sponsoring regimes and terror organizations such as Hamas.

But, later yesterday it was discovered that although Jamie Rubin was the one to interview McCain two years ago -- he had cherry-picked clips from the interview with McCain in his article.

Here is what John McCain actually said:

"I think the United States should take a step back, see what they do when they form their government, see what their policies are, and see the ways that we can engage with them, and if there aren’t any, there may be a hiatus."

Of course, this is very different from what Rubin reported and from Barack Obama's pledge on his website to meet with terror regimes without preconditions.

But, that did not stop Jamie Rubin and Barack Obama from repeating the lie on McCain today.

Where does this go?  McCain should loudly demand an apology, and accuse Obama of amateurism and poor research.  Not the kind of man you want running foreign policy.  McCain got a little tougher on Obama this past week, and it's got to continue.

May 18, 2008.      Permalink          

NOT TO BE MISSED

Finally, should you be in the East today, or should you simply be willing to fly in, there is an event you must not miss:

NEW YORK (AP) -- The veggies your mom implored you to eat are getting their own celebration in New York City: The Veggie Pride Parade.

Rain or shine, the parade is expected to wend its way through Manhattan's old meatpacking district on Sunday before ending at Washington Square Park.

Along the route, costumed bride and groom Penelo Pea Pod and Chris P. Carrot will exchange veggie vows and ask observers to ''Give Peas a Chance'' and ''Go Vegetarian!''

Parade organizer Pamela Rice says the mission of the parade is to promote vegan and vegetarian lifestyles and the ethical treatment of animals. It was inspired by a similar parade in Paris, France.

Okay, no problem.  At least the wedding will be between a a pea pod and a carrot.  Some of the radicals in the movement, inspired by this week's court decision in California, wanted two carrots to marry, but were blocked by a problem in New York law.  But be on guard.  New York courts are liberal, and you never know what might happen in next year's Veggie Pride Parade.  Just the thought of two potatoes...

May 18, 2008.       Permalink